Road Accident Fund in Crisis: Key Developments, Court Rulings & Funding Reforms – September 2026

Introduction

South Africa’s Road Accident Fund (RAF) continues to dominate headlines in 2026, facing a perfect storm of landmark court rulings, a surging claims backlog, mounting financial liabilities, and a government-led review of its funding model. As of September 2026, the RAF finds itself at a critical crossroads – technically insolvent, under parliamentary scrutiny, and bracing for a potential government bailout. Here is a comprehensive overview of the most important recent developments affecting the RAF and what they mean for South African road accident victims, motorists, and taxpayers.

1. RAF Technically Insolvent Since 1981 – Scopa Inquiry Underway

In January 2026, former RAF board members appeared before Parliament’s Standing Committee on Public Accounts (Scopa) and made a startling admission: the Road Accident Fund has been technically insolvent since 1981 – over four decades of liabilities consistently exceeding assets.

Former deputy chair Nomonde Buyisiwe Mabuya and other ex-board members told Scopa that the fund’s current crisis is the result of long-standing structural, governance, and legislative failures that predate their tenure. They cited weak internal controls, a highly litigious operating model, instability at executive management level, and a significant litigation backlog as key contributors to the fund’s collapse.

Scopa’s formal inquiry covers the 2020/21 to 2024/25 financial years, but the committee has made clear that earlier decisions and omissions will also be scrutinised. According to the 2026 Budget Review, the total liabilities of social security funds at the end of 2024/25 were reported at R433.1 billion, of which the RAF accounted for 85.5% – equivalent to R370.3 billion. The RAF’s liabilities are projected to increase from R369.7 billion in 2024/25 to R422.6 billion by 2027/28.

2. Landmark SCA Ruling: RAF 1 Form Declared Unlawful – 160,000 Claims Surge

One of the most consequential legal developments of 2026 came on 30 April 2026, when the Supreme Court of Appeal (SCA) dismissed the RAF’s appeal against a High Court judgment that declared the 2022 RAF 1 Form unconstitutional, unlawful, and invalid.

The SCA found that the RAF had exceeded its powers by introducing more stringent claim lodgement requirements without proper statutory authorisation. The court also found that the Minister of Transport’s approval of the revised form was unlawful, as the required public participation process had not taken place and there was no evidence of independent consideration of whether the new requirements were necessary.

The ruling reinstated the original 2008 RAF 1 Form and gave claimants whose claims had been rejected under the 2022 regime until 30 September 2026 to resubmit their claims. Successfully resubmitted claims are treated as having been lodged on the original submission date, protecting them from prescription.

The Claims Surge

The financial and operational implications are enormous. By 1 July 2026, the RAF had already received 62,643 claims in the post-judgment stream, with weekly intake reaching as high as 12,077 claims in a single week. Based on the rate of intake, the RAF projected a total of 159,591 RAF 1 Form claims by the 30 September deadline.

Applying the RAF’s average payment of R283,595 per claim (based on Q1 2026/27 figures) to the projected 159,591 claims produces a potential liability figure of approximately R45.3 billion. The RAF paid R8.9 billion on 80,665 claims during the first quarter of the 2026/27 financial year (April-June 2026), representing a 54% increase from the previous year.

3. Government Bailout Increasingly Likely

Following the SCA ruling on the RAF 1 Form, financial experts and legal practitioners have warned that a significant government bailout is increasingly likely. The RAF is estimated to have approximately R500 billion in unqualified contingencies, a portion of which is attributable to the fund rejecting claims that complied with the RAF Act but not its own unlawful requirements.

Attorney Gert Nel of Gert Nel Inc Attorneys warned that the financial implications are huge and that National Treasury will definitely have to get involved with a bailout to cover the additional expenses. His firm alone was running a book in excess of R100 million in unpaid RAF claims with default court orders in place.

The 2025 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement had already flagged the RAF as a significant fiscal risk, warning that its financial position is expected to deteriorate over the medium term. The RAF owes South Africans an estimated R21 billion in unpaid claims, according to Transport Minister Barbara Creecy, with court dates for some claimants stretching as far as 2030 and beyond.

4. SCA Rules RAF Must Compensate Undocumented Foreign Nationals

In another landmark ruling in April 2026, the Supreme Court of Appeal confirmed that the RAF must compensate all road accident victims in South Africa – including undocumented foreign nationals.

The SCA dismissed the RAF’s appeal against a Gauteng High Court ruling that had struck down a RAF directive requiring foreign nationals to prove legal presence in South Africa at the time of injury. The court found that the RAF Act makes no exclusion based on immigration status and that any person in the Act includes all road accident victims in the country.

The ruling has significant financial implications, with foreign nationals having already claimed an estimated R23 billion from the RAF. Critics argue this places additional strain on an already financially distressed fund, while supporters maintain that the law is clear and non-discriminatory.

5. Minister Creecy Hints at Radical New Funding Model – End of the Fuel Levy?

In July 2026, Transport Minister Barbara Creecy confirmed that the Department of Transport and the RAF have initiated a formal review of the RAF’s funding framework, exploring potential changes to how the fund is financed.

Currently, the RAF is funded primarily through a levy on every litre of petrol and diesel sold in South Africa – currently set at R2.25 per litre. Creecy confirmed that the review is guided by a formal business case and is still in its early stages, with no final funding model yet decided. The evaluation of proposed funding options is anticipated to be concluded during the 2026/27 financial year.

The minister emphasised that any proposed model must be equitable, sustainable, and appropriate for the South African context. The Democratic Alliance (DA) has criticised any move that could result in additional costs for motorists, arguing that the RAF’s challenges stem from mismanagement and inefficiency rather than insufficient contributions.

6. Calls for Urgent Reform: What Needs to Change?

Across the political and legal spectrum, there is growing consensus that the RAF requires fundamental reform. Key areas identified by experts and stakeholders include:

• Legislative reform: The RAF Act is widely regarded as outdated and in need of comprehensive amendment.
• Alternative funding models: Options being explored include vehicle licence fees, mandatory third-party insurance, or a hybrid model.
• Governance overhaul: The Scopa inquiry is expected to make recommendations on strengthening governance and financial management.
• Reducing legal costs: A significant portion of RAF revenue is spent on administrative and legal costs rather than reaching claimants.
• Faster claims processing: Thousands of claimants are waiting years – in some cases decades – for their claims to be resolved.

What This Means for RAF Claimants

If you have a pending RAF claim or were involved in a road accident in South Africa, here are the key points to be aware of:

• 30 September 2026 deadline: If your claim was rejected under the 2022 RAF 1 Form regime, you have until 30 September 2026 to resubmit using the 2008 RAF 1 Form.
• Seek legal advice: Given the complexity of the current claims environment, consult a qualified attorney who specialises in RAF claims.
• Contact the RAF directly: The RAF WhatsApp number (071 605 4707) can assist with claim status queries.
• Be patient but persistent: Default judgments can be obtained if the RAF fails to respond within the prescribed 120-day period.

Conclusion: A Fund at a Crossroads

The Road Accident Fund’s challenges in 2026 are not new – the fund has been technically insolvent for over four decades. But the convergence of landmark court rulings, a massive claims surge, escalating liabilities, and a government funding review has brought the RAF’s crisis to a head. The coming months will be critical, and meaningful reform is urgently needed for the millions of South Africans who depend on the RAF for compensation after road accidents.

Sources: Moonstone Information Refinery, Moneyweb, IOL Business, TimesLIVE, Sowetan Live, Top Auto. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice.