RAF South Africa: Crisis, Reforms and Claimant Updates – October 2026

Introduction

The Road Accident Fund (RAF) in South Africa faces an unprecedented financial crisis in October 2026. With monthly losses reaching R21 billion and liabilities far exceeding assets, the organization is at a critical juncture. This comprehensive article explores the current state of the RAF, proposed reforms, recent leadership changes, legislative amendments, and what these developments mean for claimants seeking compensation for road accident injuries.

1. The RAF Financial Crisis: R21 Billion Monthly Losses

The Road Accident Fund is hemorrhaging money at an alarming rate. As of October 2026, the RAF is losing R21 billion every month, with expenditures reaching R25 billion while revenue from fuel levies stands at only R4 billion. This massive shortfall has created a liability crisis, with the fund’s liabilities exceeding its assets by R439.5 billion. This unsustainable financial position threatens the organization’s ability to pay claims and maintain operations.

2. Proposed Reforms: Fuel Levy Increase and Systemic Changes

To address the financial emergency, authorities have proposed significant reforms. A 33% increase in the fuel levy is on the table, raising it from R2.25 to R3.00 per litre. Beyond the levy increase, the RAF is planning a transition to a no-fault system and the introduction of annuity payments for claimants. These reforms aim to stabilize the fund’s finances while improving the claims process and ensuring sustainable compensation for road accident victims.

3. New Leadership: CEO Waseem Carrim Appointed

In September 2026, Waseem Carrim was appointed as the new CEO of the Road Accident Fund. This leadership change comes at a critical time as the organization navigates its financial crisis and implements necessary reforms. Carrim’s appointment signals a commitment to addressing the systemic challenges facing the RAF and driving the organizational changes needed to restore financial stability.

4. Imminent RAF Act Amendments

Significant amendments to the RAF Act are imminent and will address several key areas. These amendments will cover capped claims, rehabilitation services, mediation processes, and the handling of foreign national claims. These legislative changes are designed to create a more sustainable and equitable claims system while reducing the fund’s exposure to unlimited liability.

5. Foreign National Claims: R23.3 Billion Exposure

Foreign national claims represent a substantial portion of the RAF’s liability. Over a five-year period, R23.3 billion in claims were lodged by foreign nationals, totaling 13,127 claims. This significant exposure has contributed to the fund’s financial strain and is a key focus area for the proposed RAF Act amendments, which will establish clearer guidelines for handling claims from non-South African residents.

6. The SCA Ruling Impact: 160,000 Claims Surge and R45.3 Billion Exposure

A Supreme Court of Appeal (SCA) ruling on 30 April 2026 declared the 2022 RAF 1 Form unlawful, triggering a massive surge in claims. Nearly 160,000 claims have been lodged following this ruling, creating unprecedented pressure on the fund. The potential exposure from these claims is estimated at R45.3 billion, representing a significant additional liability that has exacerbated the RAF’s financial crisis.

7. Q1 2026/27 Performance: Increased Payouts and Growing Backlog

In the first quarter of 2026/27, the RAF paid out R8.9 billion across 80,665 claims, representing a 54% increase in claim payments. However, this increased payout activity has not resolved the underlying backlog problem. The claims backlog has grown to R22.18 billion, with 301,203 open claims awaiting resolution. This growing backlog indicates that despite increased payment activity, the RAF is struggling to keep pace with claim volumes.

What Claimants Should Know

For road accident victims and their families, the current situation presents both challenges and opportunities. Claimants should be aware that the RAF is actively processing claims, with Q1 2026/27 showing significant payment activity. However, the large backlog means that claim resolution times may still be lengthy. The proposed reforms, including the transition to a no-fault system and annuity payments, may change how future claims are handled. Claimants should stay informed about RAF Act amendments and consider seeking legal advice to understand how these changes may affect their claims. The appointment of new leadership and the focus on systemic reforms suggest that the RAF is committed to improving its operations, though the financial crisis remains a significant concern.

Conclusion

The Road Accident Fund faces a critical juncture in October 2026. The combination of massive monthly losses, a R439.5 billion liability gap, and nearly 160,000 new claims following the SCA ruling has created an unprecedented crisis. However, the proposed reforms—including the fuel levy increase, transition to a no-fault system, and RAF Act amendments—represent a comprehensive effort to address these challenges. With new CEO Waseem Carrim at the helm, the organization is positioned to implement necessary changes. For claimants, this period of reform offers both uncertainty and potential improvement in the claims process. Staying informed and seeking professional guidance will be essential as the RAF navigates its path forward and implements these significant changes.